Methodology and limitations
Every result is a dated, deterministic observation—not a hidden score or prediction.
Current prototype method — 16 July 2026. Live monitoring frequency, persistent history, and email alerts are not active yet. The one-off checker and fictional scenarios are the implemented scope.
Source records
The implemented adapter uses the official Companies House API for company search, profile, filing history, charges, and officers. Results link back to the public Companies House record.
A one-off evaluation currently requests up to 25 recent filings, 25 charges, and 50 officers. That bounded coverage is displayed because it may not represent every historic event.
Deterministic rules
The engine evaluates normalized facts using published conditions. It does not train on payment outcomes, infer intent, or produce a probability of failure.
- Materially adverse current company status.
- An active strike-off proposal inferred from the latest relevant start or withdrawal filing.
- Accounts or confirmation statement marked overdue.
- Accounts due within 30 days.
- Recent charge creation, multiple recent director departures, or a recent registered-office change.
The engine supports an active-insolvency-case input, but the current live adapter does not retrieve a dedicated insolvency-case feed. The product must not claim that coverage until the source and tests are implemented.
Severity means review priority
| Level | Meaning | Suggested response |
|---|---|---|
| Critical | A materially adverse public-record observation. | Stop extending new credit and investigate promptly. |
| High | An overdue filing or material status change. | Review outstanding exposure and terms today. |
| Medium | A contextual change worth checking. | Verify context before approving further exposure. |
| Clear | No implemented rule triggered in the supplied bounded data. | Continue ordinary review; this is not a guarantee. |
Severity is not a credit score and does not measure the amount or probability of loss.
Change detection
The engine compares the current evaluation with the previous valid evaluation. A material alert should be created only for a newly observed signal or an escalation. Reprocessing the same observation must not duplicate a signal or delivery.
A later return to a previously seen state remains legitimate history, so snapshots use observation idempotency keys rather than permanently suppressing repeated state hashes.
Failure behaviour
Missing configuration, invalid input, not-found records, rate limits, timeouts, and upstream outages have explicit error states. A failed or partial upstream check produces no evaluation and must not overwrite the last valid snapshot.
The charges endpoint alone treats a Companies House 404 as an empty charges list because companies can have no charge resource. Other required source failures stop the evaluation.
Limitations
- Companies House filings can be late, corrected, disputed, or incomplete.
- Recent bounded result windows can omit older context.
- Same-day filing order can make strike-off interpretation ambiguous.
- Director changes and charges can have routine explanations.
- No result establishes ability or willingness to pay.
- The user remains responsible for verifying the source and considering invoices, contracts, communications, and professional advice.